The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers in 2026, in line with last year, while Challenger, Gray & Christmas expects retail seasonal gains to come in around 450,000. Retailers are staffing cautiously, so competition for each worker stays real even though totals are modest. In late October, front-load spend toward your hardest-to-fill locations, show pay, enable text apply and contact applicants fast.
What Does the NRF Forecast for 2026 Holiday Hiring?
In a release dated October 15, 2026, NRF predicted that November and December retail sales will grow 4.2 percent over 2025, totaling $1.013 trillion. NRF said the 2025 season grew 3.1 percent over 2024, reaching $972 billion. On staffing, NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, compared with an estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs last year. NRF attributes the cautious approach to higher fuel costs, stubborn inflation, elevated borrowing rates and heavy household debt.
What Does Challenger, Gray & Christmas Project?
Challenger published its 2026 holiday hiring outlook on September 23, 2026. Its numbers use a different method than NRF’s, so treat them as a second view rather than a competing total.
| Measure | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| NRF seasonal retail hires | Not used here | About 356,000 (estimate) | 325,000 to 375,000 (forecast) |
| Challenger Q4 retail seasonal gain | 543,100 | 461,500 (actual) | About 450,000 (projection) |
| Challenger Q4 transportation and warehousing | Not used here | 266,500 (actual) | Similar to 2025 (no figure given) |
Challenger described the 2025 retail gain as the smallest seasonal gain since 2008, and said transportation and warehousing in 2025 was the lowest Q4 total since 2018. Challenger also noted that Spirit Halloween announced 52,000 associates for 1,575 stores, and Michaels announced more than 10,000 seasonal team members. As of its October 1 report, Challenger said Spirit Halloween and Michaels were the only retailers to have announced 2026 seasonal plans, a combined 62,000 hires, and that seasonal hiring plans overall were down across seasonal employers.
Why Do the Numbers Differ?
The two sources measure different things and cover different periods, so the figures are not directly comparable. NRF gives a range for retail seasonal hires, while Challenger reports a fourth-quarter retail employment gain. Use the ranges for planning, and use your own historical data for local decisions.
What Should Employers Do Now in Late October?
Peak hiring windows are short. Most seasonal roles need to be filled and trained in the coming weeks, so the actions below matter more than forecast totals. For the broader playbook, see Joveo’s guides to seasonal and holiday hiring and seasonal hiring demand and advertising costs.
Front-loaded or even pacing?
With cautious headcounts and a tight window, front-loading is usually the better fit for roles that need training before peak days. Even pacing suits stores that can onboard in waves through December. A practical split: front-load high-volume store and distribution roles, and run steady pacing for smaller or later-start roles. Review pacing daily, not weekly.
Text apply
Hourly candidates often browse and apply on phones. A short text-based apply flow, with updates and interview scheduling by message, removes friction. See text recruiting for how this works.
Geotargeting
Seasonal demand is local. Shift budget toward stores and facilities with the largest gaps, and target a realistic commute radius. Geofencing can reach candidates near competing retail clusters.
Pay display
Show the hourly rate, shift pattern and any seasonal bonus in the ad title or first lines. Clear pay reduces unqualified clicks and helps candidates compare you with nearby employers.
Speed to contact
In short windows, response time can decide who you hire. Aim to contact applicants the same day, automate scheduling and confirm start dates quickly. Retail-focused examples appear in Joveo’s piece on how retailers scale seasonal hiring with programmatic ads.
How Should You Treat Forecasts in Your Plan?
Forecasts describe national averages. Your cost and volume depend on your markets, pay and brand. Set a base, low and high scenario, agree triggers for shifting budget, and revisit them weekly through mid-December.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many seasonal workers does NRF expect retailers to hire in 2026?
NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, compared with an estimated 356,000 last year.
What is NRF’s 2026 holiday sales forecast?
NRF predicts November and December retail sales will grow 4.2 percent over 2025, to $1.013 trillion.
What does Challenger project for 2026 retail seasonal hiring?
Challenger projects retail seasonal hiring will fall below last year’s level to about 450,000 Q4 jobs, after 461,500 in 2025.
When should employers start advertising for holiday jobs?
Many employers start in September or October. If you are starting now in late October, prioritize fast-moving, high-volume roles and front-load spend.
What is the best way to attract holiday applicants?
Show pay clearly, offer text apply, target by location and contact applicants quickly.
