Introduction
Welcome to another edition of Recruiting Realities! This week, we have a very special episode as the “David and David Show” is in full swing. Filling in for Yazad, Joveo’s in-house labor economist David Garrett is joined by his counterpart, David Wilkins from our fantastic partners at TalentNeuron. The two Davids are here to break down all the details of the US jobs report for June 2025 and what it all means for the world of recruitment.
David Garrett: Hey everyone, David Garrett, Joveo‘s in-house labor economist filling in for Yazad today.
And welcome to Recruiting Realities! Where we bring you the latest developments and insights in recruitment.
Today, we’re speaking about the US jobs report for June 2025 with our friend David Wilkins from our wonderful partners, TalentNeuron, the experts in strategic workforce planning, talent marketplace, and market intelligence. Hey David, how’s it going?
David Wilkins: Pretty good, thank you, David. It’s a David and David show today!
David Garrett: Exactly, yeah. And for our listeners, at Joveo we publish Interactive Insights across all major occupations in the US. You can check that out at our website, joveo.com/interactive-insights/
So, just going into the US jobs report for June, the labor market added an estimated 147,000 jobs above the 110,000 forecasted.
Meanwhile, both April and May’s numbers were revised upwards by around 16,000, totaling 95,000, oh, I’m sorry, downwards by around 16,000, totaling 95,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. Unemployment remained stable, dropping to I think 4.1%, defying forecasts that it would increase, which has also stayed within the same narrow range since about May of 2024.
Across sectors, we saw gains in healthcare, which grew by 40,000 or so, state and local government employment, which grew by 73,000, likely because of hiring education. Meanwhile, federal government has continued to shed jobs since its peak employment numbers in January. So, from my perspective on it, the overall numbers are above expectations. Unemployment looks great. Fundamentals and trends below headlines are kind of showing things slowing down. The private sector has only added around 74,000 positions. And this is, I think, the smallest increase since October of last year. And while we saw job losses in manufacturing, professional business services, wholesale trade, it’s the same trend we’ve seen over the past six months, where it’s the slowest pace, I think, since 2020, or 2010, I’m sorry, excluding pandemic years.
We’ve also seen increasing, you know, increases in the numbers of people who are experiencing long-term unemployment, which means anybody who’s been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. And I believe also the number for discouraged workers have, you know, those who have stopped looking for work have also increased by around 200,000 people or so. So, you know, let me turn things to you, David. Any insights from you guys over at TalentNeuron? What are you guys seeing?
David Wilkins: Yeah, I’d echo a lot of what you just observed. I mean, I think June’s numbers appear strong on the surface, but that underlying composition that you talked about, I think is really important to sort of dissect further. I think the media, they tend to focus on that top line, sort of message, right? The above expectation overall job growth. But to your point, we’re starting to see a notable shortfall in professional and business services hiring.
And I’ll just highlight the two sectors that you mentioned, government and healthcare for different reasons. In healthcare, it’s interesting because travel nursing is really continuing to lead all job postings. So that’s, you know, reflective, I think, not just of temporary demand spikes, but this persistent staffing problem in the healthcare sector. And there seems to be almost like now becoming an entrenched reliance on flexible labor models to close delivery care gaps. I think there’s… we’ve almost seen a shift away from sort of a direct model to a much more blended model between direct and sort of elastic workforce kind of strategies in the healthcare sector. I don’t think that’s going to go away. And to your point about government, well, you know, I think, you know, it’s interesting because one of the biggest advertised roles in the federal sector was actually for nurses, in the Department of Veterans Affairs. So it’s almost like healthcare is part of the fuel, even for the government job growth, which is interesting.
And I also worry a little bit. I don’t think we’ve seen some of the impacts trickle through yet from, know, some of the… I mean, we just saw this week, you know, pretty significant layoffs in the state department, department of education, etc. So I think some of that’s going to cause a detrimental effect in the out years. And then, you know, back to the corporate side, you know, we’re continuing to see what we started to observe in April, which is a decline in demand for recruiters, which is really a bellwether of future hiring.
That’s down again in June. It’s lower than the same period again last year, suggesting that that private sector, you know, appetite is just not there. And the one other thing I’ll mention is something I’m starting to get a little bit of sort of nervousness… you know, this whole Microsoft thing laying off, you know, 15,000 people, despite massive profits and attributing that to automation related sort of things. And I just, I worry a little that’s a canary in the coal mine for what we’re gonna see going forward.So, you know, that’s something I think we both should keep an eye on is what’s the impact of automation going down the road. But yeah, so I think there’s just an overall sense of uncertainty in the market right now. And I feel like people are pausing, I think there’s a little bit of cooling happening. So yeah, I couldn’t agree more with your sentiments earlier. I think you’re spot on.
David Garrett: And I totally agree. I also believe it’s somewhere I read… somebody pointed out that the fact that a lot of people who were laid off from federal positions were kind of put on…not laid off, but they were kind of on hold over until things get… Those people haven’t technically hit the unemployment in the end. So that’s a huge time bomb of unemployment that might take up, you know…
David Wilkins: Yeah, yeah, well said.
David Garrett: Yeah, no, thank you so much again for your time, David. It’s been great speaking with you. Always happy to learn more from you guys. And thank you to our listeners. Please don’t forget to visit us at joveo.com and we’ll see you again soon!
Conclusion
And that’s a wrap on the “David and David Show” for today! The two Davids dove into the June 2025 jobs report, highlighting the paradox of strong top-line numbers versus a more cautious reality underneath. They discussed how government and healthcare hiring are currently propping up the market, while a slower private sector, declining demand for recruiters, and the specter of automation suggest that a period of cooling might be on the horizon. A huge thank you to David Wilkins from TalentNeuron for joining us and sharing his invaluable expertise. And to all our listeners, thank you for tuning in! For more deep dives into the labor market, be sure to visit joveo.com. We’ll catch you next time on Recruiting Realities!
