With economic indicators and consumer sentiment swinging widely, it might seem impossible to pin down the right recruiting strategy for 2022. David Garrett, Labor Market Research Analyst, has contributed to Joveo’s US Industry Forecast 2022, a helpful report to inform your recruiting plans. We recently caught up with David to talk about the Forecast and what lies immediately ahead for recruiting professionals.

Joveo: Perhaps the biggest question on everyone’s mind is whether the US is headed for a recession, and how that will impact recruiting. What do you think?

David: I’ll answer that with two of our report’s top-line findings. First, a prolonged downturn or technical recession is a near certainty, however a deep recession is unlikely. Second, macroeconomic trends indicate that the rate of job openings is very likely to remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, irrespective of a slowdown or recession.

Joveo: Let’s unpack that. What’s the difference between a technical recession and a deep recession?

David: A technical recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of negative growth – that is, decline – in US gross domestic product (GDP). A deep recession is like what happened in 2008, when the housing bubble burst, the financial sector imploded, unemployment rose, and many people suffered life-altering consequences.

Joveo: We’ve been experiencing a housing boom during the pandemic, how is that different from 2008?  

David: The current housing market has been driven up by two of the pandemic’s biggest impacts: being at home and saving money. Lockdowns and ongoing work from home (WFH) have made people want to improve their living situation, and the money they saved during the pandemic – from stimulus checks, foregoing vacations and going out, and as a coping behavior to regain a sense of stability – put many people into the housing market, creating hot real estate markets around the country. 

Joveo: What’s happening now with WFH? 

David: WFH culture is in flux at the moment. On the one hand, many workers love it, and are willing to accept lower wages in order to keep working from home. On the other hand, some companies are tightening their hiring practices in anticipation of recession, which may result in a loss of bargaining [for WFH] power for some candidates. We are seeing some of this in the tech industry, in particular.  

Joveo: If hiring is slowing in the tech industry, that seems inconsistent with the second major finding from the report: the rate of job openings is very likely to remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, despite a slowdown or recession.

David: There are a lot of other industries besides tech (laughs). The two sectors Joveo sees as having the most resilience, in terms of hiring, during the second half of 2022 are Healthcare and Social Assistance, and State and Local Government. 

Joveo: Why is that? How did you come to that conclusion in developing the report? 

Find out David’s answer on Wednesday when we post Part 2 of this blog. In the meantime, you can get your copy of Joveo US Industry Forecast 2022 now. 

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Related: US Labor Market Trends: The Inflation, Ukraine War, Pandemic Trifecta