The U.S. has witnessed unprecedented increases in job openings and, subsequently, a tight labor market. The economy saw a swift post-COVID recovery in 2021, however, in recent months, high inflation and ensuing policy tightening has lowered growth forecasts.
After the June 15th policy rate hike of 75 basis points, the growth outlook for 2022 was slashed, falling from 2.8% to 1.7%. Similar monetary policy tightening (in response to rising inflation) is happening in countries around the world. Higher interest rates, increased chances for a technical recession, and higher unemployment are being factored into policy changes. In addition, spillover from the war in Europe will likely hasten the deceleration of global economic activity. As of July 2022, real GDP is expected to come in at 1.7% and slow to 0.5% in 2023. Given what we know at this time, we are in the middle of a global economic slowdown.
A worldwide downturn in economic growth will affect the global labor market, as widespread uncertainty and high cost of borrowing impacts corporate expansion plans. In addition, consumers will spend less due to reduced purchasing power. And, as a result of COVID-19-related government debt, any type of bail out is unlikely.
To this end, we have conducted an economic analysis, examining current and historic interactions between the labor market, the business cycle, and macroeconomic trends. Our analysis identifies and ranks industries according to the projected employment stability and future job opportunities.
Please download the full report here.